Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-4)
LOS ANGELES
Potentially no Ladd McConkey. Huge loss for the Chargers. Will need to scheme up more Quentin Johnston and Derius Davis touches, may need to rely on the ground game more but no JK Dobbins either. Will be very tough for them to generate explosives against Chiefs defense. Expect low scoring, FG-heavy game. Will need Justin Herbert to be superman to make any big play and finish drives. Maybe they lean into the QB run game a little?
KANSAS CITY
Have not been able to open up the offense as everyone hoped and expected before the season, but they have been very close.
With Isiah Pacheco coming back into the lineup, the explosive element of their offense on the ground could come back to life and the Chargers have shown some weakness when it comes to defending the run. Chiefs also have DJ Humphries starting for the first time this season. Their LT situation was a mess against the Raiders and has been contributing to their struggles on offense. Unclear how much of an upgrade Humphries will be, though it can't be worse than what they have had.
Bets I like:
Justin Herbert 25+ rush yards (+125)
Pacheco anytime TD (+105)
Xavier Worthy 60+ receiving yards (+300)
Score prediction: 24-13 Chiefs
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5)
CLEVELAND
Jameis Winston will Jameis as we saw on MNF and he won’t change his play style for anyone. Stefanski doesn’t seem to mind either and will let Jameis drop back on seemingly every play. Expect the Jerry Jeudy and David Njoku parade to keep rolling even against a tough Steelers defense. Ultimately, Jameis’ misses and turnovers will likely keep them from winning, but it will be fun to watch the journey.
PITTSBURGH
People have been claiming they’ve seen vintage Russell Wilson many times this year. In reality, last week was the closest he has looked to his prime in Seattle. His arm is coming alive, and he hit a deep sideline vertical to Pickens that was reminiscent of moon balls of years past. He is operating the passing game at a high level and he and Arthur Smith are a complementary duo. He is being asked to do exactly what he is best at, and is executing at the highest level we have seen since he left Seattle. Below are two examples.
The beautiful deep ball to George Pickens. Notice the amount of air he gets under it and the location over Pickens far shoulder. Earlier this year and last year he was still leaving these throws short and inside.
This is classic Russell, adjusting the play at the LOS when he recognizes a cover 0 look and finding a way to get to the post. Zero blitzing prime Russell Wilson was a terrible idea, and it seems like he has gotten back to being able to take advantage of those looks. With the Steelers having a big-boy passing game for the first time since the Killer B’s, they are a legitimate threat to make a playoff run in the AFC.
Bets I like:
David Njoku O 5.5 Reception (+110)
Jameis Winston 300+ Pass Yds (+320)
George Pickens anytime TD (+105)
Score prediction: 31 - 20 Steelers
Buffalo Bills (-3.5) at Los Angeles Rams
BUFFALO
Dismantling the 49ers in the snow was another notch in the belt for this overperforming Bills team. Taking down both Super Bowl teams is no small feat, and the Bills have established their dominance as a top 5 squad. The Rams continue to be vulnerable through both air and ground. Alvin Kamara gashing them for 4.9 ypc and 112 yards is a good sign for James Cook, who is coming off his own triple digit performance. Although the Bills backfield remains a 4-way committee, James is the clear leader and should own most of the carries in competitive matchups.
Khalil Shakir is startable as a flex this week against this secondary. Current prop of 54.5 rec yards is not a value, but I do expect him to beat it. Amari Cooper's 37.5 line is more interesting because it's so low - having crossed that line 5 times in the last 8 games, but again the value is nothing special.
LOS ANGELES
The Rams sluggish first half came down to a few simple misses on critical downs. They bounced back just fine in the second half with 21 points. Start all Rams players as normal. The prop lines are high across the board for the main starters. I'd consider Cooper Kupp at 66.5 or Demarcus Robinson at 22.5 but they won't be mainline plays.
Bets I like:
James Cook O60.5 Rush Yards (-115)
Score prediction: 28 - 24 Bills
Tennessee Titans (-3) vs Jacksonville Jaguars
TENNESSEE
Will Levis has indeed been low key dealing. Although his completion percentage has dropped in the last few games, he's being smarter with the football and not making the same stupid turnovers. The film shows a maturing young player who has enough ability to roll with for one more season. The Jaguars have given up 200 yards to every quarterback they have faced, except Deshaun Watson (lmao). Will's 214.5 pass yards prop is a nice value.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine's 8 touchdowns on 38 targets is a hilarious absurdity, but I'm more than happy to ride the wave. He's a good ball player, competitive at the catch point and a good enough mover to win on key doubles:
I'm looking for a Jameis Winston-level explosion against the worst secondary in the league and laddering up these Titans players. If you need a flex, go ahead and start your Titans.
JACKSONVILLE
Brian Thomas' release work has rapidly advanced since last year. He gives you everything you want out of your top receiver. Mac Jones has not hindered him much. If the QB is average, good WRs are consistent no matter what. Continue to start Brian Thomas despite facing a suprisingly solid Titans defense.
Our projection model has BOTH Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby outperforming their rushing props. Travis printed a consistent run log against the Texans, while Tank had the lone explosive (19 yd run in the 4th). We'll stick with Travis due to the slight snap edge, it's rare to get a prop under 40 yards for a starting tailback. Travis should be able to cross that number like James Conner did last week.
Bets I like:
Will Levis over 214.5 Pass Yards
Nick Westbrook Ikhine over 37.5 Receiving Yards
Travis Etienne over 38.5 Rushing Yards
Score Prediction: 28-21 Titans
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