Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills (-2):
(@JetPackGalileo)
Patrick Mahomes has been bad all year. The stats are not lying. It's annoying that they're going to three-peat this season, because it feels like we're being disrespected. Mahomes isn't missing reads because his receiving options are bad. He's straight up missing throws. Chiefs play down to their opponent every week. They simply don't care. They've basically clinched the 1 seed and a loss to a playoff team would provide some kindling for a January fire. Bills are in a perfect spot to win this at home, so of course, they're favored. Why does Vegas keep favoring opponents of an undefeated team? We just saw the Chiefs smother a better 49ers squad. I'm not falling for that trap. KC will run their little underdog schtick and pull out another win. Despite playing poorly, they have the superior roster and the superior coaching staff.
On the other hand, Josh Allen has been superb. Despite a weak supporting cast, he keeps making it work.
This Chiefs defense is different, however. The Bills have played two good defenses all season long. The Texans and the Ravens both held him under 190 passing yards. While Amari Cooper's return is likely to give a slight boost, there's no standout options here.
Picks:
Kareem Hunt o65.5 rush yd
Chiefs W
Score Prediction: 24-21 Chiefs
Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers:
(@JetPackGalileo)
The key to victory will be Russell Wilson and the Pittsburgh passing game. I expect them to be playing catchup. There is risk that this is as ugly as Ravens vs Bengals without the 4th Quarter explosion, but the Ravens have finished strong in every game, so I'll keep playing the pass games chasing them.
Arthur Smith is clearly trying to feature Calvin Austin as the second option, and Russ understands the assignment. They couldn't get hit big on their 6 targets, but a higher volume game should get Calvin over 1.5 receptions again. George Pickens has gone over 70 yards in all 3 games with Russell Wilson.
The Ravens shouldn't be afraid of these cornerbacks. Zay Flowers can move around the formation and win any matchup, so I expect him to get his.
Props:
Russell Wilson o225.5yd
Calvin Austin o1.5rec
George Pickens TD
Zay Flowers o4.5rec
