The Cleveland Browns traded the farm, the land it was on, the animals in it, and took an extra loan out to upgrade at quarterback. They made the playoffs in 2023 on the back of elite Joe Flacco, but it's Watson's show in 2024. With upgrades in the receiver room and a reportedly healthy Watson, these 2024 Browns projections show the median outcome for the team and a good expectation for fantasy managers this season.
Major Additions and Losses
Is Jerry Jeudy elite? Probably not, but adding a timing receiver to pair up with Watson could do wonders for his game. Originally a bit of a silly contract looks better with each extension given out. They also went out and grabbed the Lasik King Jameis Winston to provide depth in the case of a Watson injury.
Too often we saw Jeudy create separation like this and was just on a different page than Russ.
Their core and coaching staff are intact from 2023, losing only their backup center and backup tight end, I'm sure Browns fans aren't losing any sleep over it. The move from Flacco to Winston as a backup quarterback is interesting, but hopefully, it doesn't impact the team much if at all.
Cleveland Browns Quarterback Projections 2024
Alright, maybe Watson isn't in Houston form. But at 6.5 yards per attempt, his 2023 season was a career low by almost a yard and a half. If we bump him up to 7.2 from knocking the rust off and adding Jeudy (still well below his career average) he's set to throw for 3,450 yards and 22 touchdowns on 515 attempts. 12 interceptions and five fumbles are in line with his Int% over his career and fumbles per game, but those can be extremely fluky year after year. Without a healthy Chubb for most of the season and a healthier Watson, they'll likely shift their attempts to
Watson showed a little more hesitation rushing the ball in 2023, whether due to injury or just getting a little older. 66 attempts for 368 yards and three touchdowns should give him a safe-ish rushing floor, and he'll be a high end QB2 in most outings.
His shoulder injury is likely to linger, so Winston is still penciled in for four games. With Winston at the helm, the team will pass for another 111 attempts, 932 yards, six touchdowns, and five more interceptions. Risk it for the biscuit, Winston cleaned up his interceptions in years prior but also saw a severe drop in his TD%.
Receiving Projections
Amari Cooper remains underrated. If he plays all 17 games, he's set for 1349 yards and nine touchdowns on 157 targets. He's the alpha in the offense, and will be until further notice. Jerry Jeudy is a nice complementary piece, with 949 yards and six touchdowns on 131 targets. Moore and the other receivers are matchup streamers at best, or an injury away from relevance.
The real deal here is David Njoku. He broke out in 2023, and it's unlikely the cat goes back in the bag now. 940 yards, nine touchdowns and 125 targets would be his piece of the pie on a 20% target share (he hit 21.5% last season but Jeudy can steal some of those quick hitters).
This is where his money is made. Shorter plays that he turns into chunk plays against bad tackling. The clip hurts as a Steelers fan, but it's where Njoku is best. George Kittle, the gold standard for broken tackles and YAC for tight ends, had less MTF and less YAC than Njoku. The breakout is real, buy in now.
Cleveland Browns Rushing Projections
Every fantasy manager wants Chubb to bounce back. Unfortunately, two catastrophic knee injuries and father time are fighting against him. He's set for his second worst season of his career, with 128 carries for 648 yards and six touchdowns. Luckily for patient managers he's likely to get better as the season moves on, so he's still a nice stash at his current ADP.
While Chubb is working back from injury, Jerome Ford will likely be the lead back with Foreman and the rest of the team taking volume at times. Ford looks poised for 198 carries and 792 yards as he's looked inefficient compared to Chubb. The rest of the backs are handcuffs at best, and the backfield is more likely to turn into a three headed headache than a fantasy target.
Cleveland Browns 2024 Projections and Closing Thoughts
There are a couple of really nice pieces to buy into if Watson is even three quarters of his former self. Cooper is a target hog at a nice pricetag, while Jeudy has burned managers enough he's going well after his career averages in output. Njoku is the piece to target most often, going outside the top five tight ends but with top two upside. It's been a while, but the Browns are finally an offense to invest in other than Nick Chubb.
Browns | Deshaun Watson | Jameis Winston | Amari Cooper | Jerry Jeudy | Elijah Moore | Other WRs/TEs | David Njoku | Jerome Ford | Nick Chubb | Other RBs |
Passing Yards | 3450 | 932 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Passing TDs | 22 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing Yards | 368 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 792 | 648 | 385 |
Rushing TDs | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 6 | 4 |
Receiving Yards | 0 | 0 | 1349 | 949 | 591 | 141 | 940 | 306 | 51 | 55 |
Receiving TDs | 0 | 0 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Fumbles | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
Interceptions | 12 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing Attempts | 66 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 198 | 128 | 102 |
Passing Plays/Tgts | 515 | 111 | 157 | 131 | 94 | 32 | 125 | 62 | 10 | 15 |
Completions | 319 | 67 | 91 | 80 | 51 | 22 | 81 | 43 | 7 | 11 |
