The Cincinnati Bengals 2023 season was a disappointment by all accounts. That tends to happen when your star quarterback is dealing with a preseason injury, then randomly suffers a wrist injury midway through the season. Their 2024 projections cause way more room for optimism, and there are pieces to want to invest in all over this offense. Let's hop in our space suits and head to the moon in these 2024 Cincinnati Bengals projections.
Major Additions and Losses
The Bengals made a small shift in their OC, where Brian Callahan went on to bigger and better things as a HC and their QB coach, Dan Pitcher moves into the OC role. Given his history in the organization, the scheme will likely look extremely similar to their past few years.
The Bengals lost their right tackle, but went ahead and drafted the mountain (Amarius Mims) and brought back their sixth offensive lineman who has filled in well (Cody Ford). The Bengals also added Trent Brown who can hold down the fort until Mims is up to speed. In 579 snaps last year, he only let pass rushers reach the QB 20 times (17 pressures, 3 sacks). Their line wasn't good by any metrics in 2023, but an extra year to grow together with the core intact while adding Mims causes room for hope.
Trent Brown is the perfect player to mentor Mims, regardless of what side they end up playing on. For the sake of these projections, the offensive line is expected to be middle of the pack and will allow Burrow to be closer to 2021 and 2022 than 2023.
The team lost Joe Mixon and Tyler Boyd, but replaced Mixon with Zach Moss and expect Chase Brown to take a step forward in 2024. Boyd was a solid WR3, but we're more excited for Jermaine Burton in that role than worried about the loss.
Cincinnati Bengals Quarterback Projections 2024
There's a group of people who think Joe Burrow is overrated. He may not be the second best quarterback in the NFL, but he is the key cog in one of the most prolific passing offenses in America.
Using his 2021 and 2022 yards per attempt, tendencies to target different positions and a slight regression in TD% (6% feels unsustainable), his 2024 season should look something like 14.5 games played, 530 attempts for 360 completions and 4,293 yards. He'll add 24 touchdowns through the air, and just over 150 yards on the ground on 52 attempts for an extra touchdown. Nine interceptions and three fumbles are in line with his career averages, and the other quarterbacks will fill in for 603 yards and three touchdowns of their own.
If we can get this version of Burrow, hitting his back step of his drop and floating one to WRs all over the field, this offense is one to invest in as far as skill positions go.
Bengals Receiving Projections
The Bengals are back baby. Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins let everyone down by preseason expectations in 2023, but with Burrow back at the helm their ADP is silly. Using their historic target shares, efficiency metrics and using Tyler Boyd's as a baseline for how the team looks to involve Burton as the WR3 paints an exciting picture.
Chase is the lead dog in the offense. He'll get 163 targets for 109 receptions, 1486 yards and nine touchdowns. Higgins has a bounce-back campaign, 127 targets 79 receptions and 1118 yards. Seven touchdowns is about right for his yardage, but if the team's touchdown luck is going to go somewhere it'll be split between him and Burton.
Jermaine Burton is the wildcard in the offense. If he's less involved, Higgins and Chase are absolute league winners. If the talent he's flashed on tape continues in the pros, 90 targets, 53 receptions and 834 yards would be about his piece of the pie. Four touchdowns is what his yardage would indicate, but he's a big play threat waiting to happen.
The biggest suspect to ruin these projections is Burton. He could mess around and score ten deep touchdowns this year while defenses are worried about the Higgins/Chase combo. He could ride the bench because he does something silly off the field again. In the third round of our rookie drafts and outside the top 50 WRs in ADP right now, he's a bargain.
The tight ends are a huge position to avoid. The system, and Burrow have a rich history of ignoring them. Mike Gesicki, Erick All and the rest of the room are going to fight over roughly 500 yards of work and a couple touchdowns. Draft them as a tight end three on a best ball team if you really have to.
Bengals Running Back Projections
The splits between Moss and Brown will be fascinating. Moss was brought in on a pretty sizable contract, but Brown's best skill is in his pass catching. I project them to split Mixon's aggressive workload with Moss leading the ground and Brown leading the air. Moss will eat up 205 carries for 861 yards and eight touchdowns, while adding 42 receptions for 281 yards in the air.
On the other hand, Brown will take 130 carries for 559 yards and five touchdowns, but he'll add another 513 through the air on 58 receptions and two more touchdowns. Both will be low end RB2s unless one takes the job by the horns.
If you want the bull case for Brown, it's this play. It's the only one. He's smooth in space and fast enough to do things like this. Unfortunately, he didn't do this much else as a rookie.
For the bear case, this is what most of his other touches look like. Splitting time on a team that loves to pass the ball, it's unlikely he hits a ceiling of note unless there's a serious injury to Moss.
Cincinnati Bengals 2024 Projections - Summary and Final Numbers
Joe Burrow returns to low end QB1 / high end QB2 status, and if he keeps his TD% above the league average he's a locked and loaded QB1. The RBs are RB2s at best, while the receivers are each comfortable plays at their ADP. Higgins is in a contract year, and Chase is seeing the big deals signed across the league, so motivation won't be an issue for anyone involved.
Their new offensive coordinator has big shoes to fill, but with Burrow and the gang back together 2024 should be a fruitful season for the Bengals and fantasy players that invest in the offense.
Bengals | Joe Burrow | Other Bengals QBs | Ja'Marr Chase | Tee Higgins | Jermaine Burton | Other WRs | Mike Gesicki | Other TEs | Zach Moss | Chase Brown | Other RBs |
Passing Yards | 4293 | 606 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Passing TDs | 24 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing Yards | 158 | 28 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 861 | 559 | 27 |
Rushing TDs | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 0 |
Receiving Yards | 0 | 0 | 1486 | 1118 | 834 | 72 | 312 | 259 | 281 | 513 | 24 |
Receiving TDs | 0 | 0 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Fumbles | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | ||||||
Interceptions | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||
Rushing Attempts | 52 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 205 | 130 | 7 | |||
Passing Plays/Tgts | 530 | 75 | 163 | 127 | 90 | 12 | 45 | 37 | 54 | 73 | 4 |
Completions | 360 | 48 | 109 | 79 | 53 | 4 | 34 | 26 | 42 | 58 | 3 |
