Dan Harms
Jan 18, 2023
College: North Carolina
Height: 5'10"
Weight: 175
Projected 40 Time: Sub 4.4
Strength: Route Running
Weakness: Physicality
Draft Projection: Top 50
After going from Sam Howell to Drake Maye in an offseason and not losing a step, Josh Downs is set to enter the NFL draft as one of the 'smaller' receivers, but doesn't play that way on the field. The success Jahan Dotson saw this season with the Washington Commanders, is along the lines of how I believe Downs could perform.
Although he's on the shorter side, Downs plays like a receiver that has three to four more inches on his frame. His film also showcased a refined route tree that isn't limited to the short and intermediate areas. He can attack vertically with the best in the class with his legit sub-4.4 speed and an array of leverage-identifying traits. Downs' yards per target went down with Maye at QB this past season, but his touchdowns went up in two fewer games played. He still managed to eclipse 1,000 yards receiving this season coming off 1,335 his sophomore season at UNC. Being a smaller receiver, one of the biggest questions he'll have to prove in the NFL is being able to win at the line of scrimmage.
Downs has speed we know that, but how can he get to it quickly? He does a great job of freezing the corner in press alignment with a stand-up hesitation release(yes I know this is a run, but the DB didn't know that). Recognizing that the defender isn't attempting to stab or jam him and isn't moving, gives Downs the upper hand. He releases outside and turns on the jets, given that Downs puts his hand up tells me this could have been an RPO call. He wanted the ball and would have had an easy touchdown with the acceleration.
Downs doesn't see press often for the reason we just described, if you miss on a jam or he uses his quick hands to evade press, Downs is gone. He's one of the fastest players in this draft not just down the field, but in acceleration as well. He's zero to sixty in no time, making it difficult to play anything but off-coverage against him. The problem with that...he's an exceptional route runner.
His understanding of space, manipulation tactics, and identifying of zone are all traits that make him a nightmare to cover anywhere Downs lines up. After the Tar Heels break from their bunch and go to a traditional spread formation, Downs sees cover four, and a wide cover four with both safeties widening to the slot players. Downs uses a skip hesitation release mid stem to freeze the underneath defender and accelerate around the jam. Now he sees the safety open up to sideline and widens his route with the leverage and cuts it back inside. Maye is taken down before he can get to Downs' route.
Here's another example of smart play against zone coverage that we see great players in the NFL use regularly. Selling the verticality of any route is a great starting point, from Downs' head to his chest, and shoulders, he doesn't give anything away. As soon as he's in the linebackers blindspot, he breaks down n his spot route and sits between two linebackers perfectly, and transitions to running after the catch. Both linebackers ran into each other it was executed so brilliantly. Speaking of brilliantly executed plays...
His whip routes are a sight to behold, I mean look at these works of art!
The difference between Downs and many other smaller receivers is the ball skills he possesses. In both clips above, he shows nuance in his understanding of the coverage he's faced with and how to win. From man coverage manipulation to seeing an outside leveraged corner, he wins in both instances. Then, it comes down to timing, which he naturally possesses. An innate ability to time his jump well in both instances and then high-point the ball in one and basket catch in the other. Downs can win in a multitude of ways and that's what makes him a true threat at the NFL level.
Downs is an incredible athlete and showed it at every level of the field while attending UNC. Now he sets his sights on the NFL and what he'll be able to do against some of the best athletes in the world. He's not the best run blocker in the world and can sometimes be a little too slow to get into his stem, but this man is built to be a dynamic receiver and master manipulator on the field. I can't wait to see him at the combine and rise up draft boards everywhere.